Creative Use of Bollinger Bands in Forex Trading

A technique using Bollinger Bands can help traders minimise losses and maximise profits. Because Bollinger bands incorporate volatility by using standard deviations in their calculations, they can accurately project price levels at which traders should abandon their trades.

The method for using Bollinger-Bands stops for double tops and double bottoms is quite simple:

1. Isolate the point of the first top or bottom, and overlay Bollinger Bands with four standard-deviation parameters.
2. Draw a line from the first top or bottom to the Bollinger Band. The point of intersection becomes your stop.

At first glance four standard deviations may seem like an extreme choice. After all, two standard deviations cover 95% of possible scenarios in a normal distribution of a dataset. However, all those who have traded financial markets know that price action is anything but normal - if it were, the type of crashes that happen in financial markets every five or 10 years would occur only once every 6,000 years. Classic statistical assumptions are not very useful for traders. Therefore setting a wider standard-deviation parameter is a must.

The four standard deviations cover more than 99% of all probabilities and therefore seem to offer a reasonable cut-off point. More importantly they work well in actual testing, providing stops that are not too tight, yet not so wide as to become prohibitively costly. Note how well they work on the following GBP/USD example.

More importantly, take a look at the next example. A true sign of a proper stop is a capacity to protect the trader from runaway losses. In the following chart, the trade is clearly wrong but is stopped out well before the one-way move causes major damage to the trader's account.

The Bottom Line

The genius of Bollinger Bands is their adaptability. By constantly incorporating volatility, they adjust quickly to the rhythm of the market. Using them to set proper stops when trading double bottoms and double tops - the most frequent price patterns in FX - makes those...Read more

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