Wednesday 25 November 2015

Integrating Technical and Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading

I have come to the conclusion that market moves technically based on the forces of demand and supply.However, this movement is greatly catalysed from time to time by economic indicators.


The movement of the market actually refers to the vibration of market prices.Our focus is the forex market, and this is the kind of market that is unique.The uniqueness of the forex market is seen in the ability of the traders to participate both in a bullish and bearish market. In order words, forex trader can choose to sell when a fall is obvious or buy when a rise is definite.

Price goes up when there is more buying force of the pair than there is selling force in the market.Conversely,
the price will go down when the sellers are more forceful than the buyers.In a nutshell,there are only two forces in the market at any time; buyers and sellers.Hence, the market price always tend to move in the direction of the net force.

The movement of market price is not fashionless! History proves that market exhibit certain patterns and thsese patterns tend to replicate from time to time.Hence we conclude that market moves technically.Since buying and selling is natural,it becomes difficult to predict with absolute accuracy the next scenario without error.However, this error becomes limited in the same capacity as the prediction itself.The equilibrium point definitely exists between the accuracy and inaccuracy of the technical analysis of the market.

I have discovered that forex traders-including successful ones, cannot be right all the time and cannot be wrong all the time.Having known this powerful truth,the success of the forex trading therefore requires good money management as well as risk management plans.For instance, I have determined not to risk more than 2% of my trading account per day and not just per trade! And I will not trade when there is know probability of having profit that will be twice my risk. I like my profit loss ratio  to be 4 ratio 1.

As brilliant as technical analysis is, one still needs to integrate it with respect to fundamental analysis.This is because great momentum is released during the release of ecnomic news/indicators like NFP,CPI,INTEREST RATES,EMPLOYMENT CLAIMS and so on.

How do you know which news to trade and which to avoid? Well, I tend to give attention to those news whose impact colour on forexfactory.com is red. I reset the time on the website to my time zone. Once it is 15 minutes to the actual time of release, I will place pending buying order 20 pips above the current pirce and pending selling orders 20 pips below the current price. I will wait till the news is released. Once one order is activated,I close the second other immediately.The stop loss is usually 25 pips and take profit can be 50 pips or even 100 pips or more.Note that I said the current price at 15 minutes to the release of the news.

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